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Research ArticleArticle

Controversy, Facts and Assumptions

Lessons from Estimating Long Term Growth in Nigeria, 1900–2007

MORTEN JERVEN
African Economic History, January 2018, 46 (1) 104-136; DOI: https://doi.org/10.3368/aeh.46.1.104
MORTEN JERVEN
Morten Jerven is the Chair of Africa and International Development at the Centre of African Studies at University of Edinburgh, and adjunct professor at Lund University and at the Norwegian University of Life Sciences.
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Abstract

This article contributes to the debates surrounding “New African Economic History” by exploring the feasibility of constructing a time series of economic growth in Nigeria spanning the whole twentieth century. Currently most datasets for African economies only go back to 1960. The sources for their creation exist, but these valuable colonial data remain underutilized. This is an exploratory paper in a project aiming to create measures of economic growth through the twentieth century for a sample of African economies. The paper offers a systematic discussion of the different available datasets on population, agricultural production and income for the country. It finds that the existing data, often presented as facts, are more accurately described as projections based on assumptions. If these assumptions are already made in the production of the data, this precludes empirical testing of important questions. The main lesson is that any African economic history investigation must both begin and end with a critical analysis of the quantitative data, and must further be supported by careful qualitative evaluation.

  • © 2018 by the Board of Regents of the University of Wisconsin System
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African Economic History: 46 (1)
African Economic History
Vol. 46, Issue 1
1 Jan 2018
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Controversy, Facts and Assumptions
MORTEN JERVEN
African Economic History Jan 2018, 46 (1) 104-136; DOI: 10.3368/aeh.46.1.104

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Controversy, Facts and Assumptions
MORTEN JERVEN
African Economic History Jan 2018, 46 (1) 104-136; DOI: 10.3368/aeh.46.1.104
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  • Article
    • Abstract
    • Introduction
    • Facts, Controversy, and Assumptions
    • Comparing Colonial and Postcolonial Output: Suggesting a Method of Estimating Long-term Changes in Income
    • Conclusion: Patterns of Continuity and Discontinuity in the Nigerian Colonial and Postcolonial State
    • Acknowledgment
    • Footnotes
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